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# Daily Dispatch 26 - Black Swam
- URL: https://lucas-schiavini.com/daily-dispatch-26-black-swam/
- Published: 2022-05-10T23:56:17.000Z
- Updated: 2022-08-16T14:43:36.000Z
- Author: Lucas Schiavini
- Tags: blackswam, book, development, economy, kmm, nassimtaleb, productivity, vim, dailydispatch, #Import 2026-08-11 14:49

How do you predict the unpredictable?

Some of what I’ve found reading [Black Swan](https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X?ref=lucas-schiavini.com) (Still haven’t finished it):

- What [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://www.amazon.com/-/pt/Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb/e/B000APVZ7W/ref=dp%5Fbyline%5Fcont%5Fpop%5Fbook%5F1?ref=lucas-schiavini.com) argues in his book [Black Swan](https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X?ref=lucas-schiavini.com) is that the first step is to realize which variables you can and can’t predict. Emphasis on the “can’t”.
- Most things are not easily predictable, and applying methods blindly can lead to a false sense of safety.
- He goes on and on about some examples and studies on how wrong most economists/sociologists/psychologist are. And how they hardly ever have enough reputable research showing their past prediction’s success and (more importantly) error rates.
- I’m excited particularly about his definitions on what is “Know-How and just Know something”.
  - You can trust a surgeon to do it’s job and accept his word as a specialist, but not every human science can have specialists. Who do you trust regarding projections for over 5 years of a country?
- And there’s something I want to read about the [paper of Michael Berry analyzing collisions of billiard balls](https://michaelberryphysics.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/berry076.pdf?ref=lucas-schiavini.com)
  - In summary, he can predict about 9 collisions, but after that things like relativity and electron states are brought into the equations.
  - And [Nassim](https://www.amazon.com/-/pt/Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb/e/B000APVZ7W/ref=dp%5Fbyline%5Fcont%5Fpop%5Fbook%5F1?ref=lucas-schiavini.com) uses this as basis for his argument on “why we can’t predict that much that we think we can”.

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So I’m starting to learn a little bit more about Prisma IO, finished a whole [new project](https://github.com/lschiavini/deliverybackend?ref=lucas-schiavini.com) on it. You can check it out on my GitHub. I’m still writing a proper read-me though.

It’s been interesting to take on more Backend projects, hopefully I’ll have something new to write about Devops by the end of the month.

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On the mobile side, I’ve been gladly working at [Nelogica](https://www.nelogica.com/?ref=lucas-schiavini.com) on some exciting new technologies, both Kotlin Multiplatform and specific business logic features for traders.

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And now I’m gonna continue learning more about devops, backend, and [VIM](https://www.vim.org/?ref=lucas-schiavini.com) (you didn’t think I stopped using it did you?).

It’s been a real pain using [VIM](https://www.vim.org/?ref=lucas-schiavini.com) to be honest, but what can I do, maybe when I finish the lessons from [LearnVim](https://marketplace.visualstudio.com/items?itemName=vintharas.learn-vim&ref=lucas-schiavini.com) I’ll like it more.

That is it for today, I’m so excited about reading Nassim’s book that I bought the whole collection today.